Tuesday, September 13, 2011

The Contrarian Realtor

Contrarian in the the Luxury Market and Beyond:


I was wrapping up my day and getting ready to make a few client calls when I get this quick note from a lender colleague about my video, Why I Don't Want Your Listing - Remodel to Sell. It struck me right then how several colleagues would surely think that I've finally lost my marbles once they see the video! Not an unfair assessment if you knew how I've been working through nights on some marketing for my Women's Business EXPO, but that's a good story for ANOTHER blog.

C'est la vie and on with my story. I decide I need to write this quick note called, "The Contrarian Realtor," and each week I will give my friends a hint of a different perspective from someone who has seen it all, or at least most of it :) And it would hopefully explain the contrarian position I take with regard to listings in 2011.

In money management, the word contrarian is used to describe investment strategies that really go against the tide of market and analyst sentiment. If the analysts say, "Buy, buy, buy," because this stock is at a great price and value, the contrarian will mostly likely sell it, and if the analyst says, "Sell, sell, sell, (any similarity to Jim Kramer is purely coincidental as I really think he is a contrarian at heart)" due to bad news on the horizon, the contrarian, if it's still a healthy balance sheet, will most likely buy it. Well, there IS a lot more that goes into it, but that's the gist of it, and that mindset has almost made the contrarian strategy mainstream in recent years!

So, it's time for a contrarian approach to real estate. A listing agent walks in and tells you why it's a great time to list your house with all the usual sound bites, "The buyers are really out in spring, I'm going to do some amazing marketing for you, you have a truly unique home, it's only going to cost you blah percent and then you can buy one of these beautiful new homes in abc subdivision at an an amazingly low price when you sell!" Well, hello, what makes you think you are going to get enough money to get that amazingly low-priced new inventory on which there are so many builder incentives right now? If buyers are out trying to bottom-fish, what makes your house so special that it is insulated against that cruel and exhausting negotiation where, eventually, one side feels simply defeated (usually the seller)? I am not exaggerating here, nor am I drawing this picture in your mind for the sheer drama of it. This type of thing is STILL happening all over the Triangle and I have been here long enough to know it won't last. This is one more phase in one more cycle.

So, I come in and tell you, "I don't want your listing." Surprised? Don't be. Even if you have NO mortgage and just feel like a move, I will tell you to hold on rather than leave money on the table. I know the next Realtor will NOT give you the same advice, and I know someone will eventually take your listing, and I will have walked away from a commission, but I can sleep at night knowing I am living by my own principles -- one of which is that it is LESS important for me to take your money right now than it is to help safeguard the pricing structure of WHOLE communities by telling you NOT to sell right now.

I would imagine most Realtors are not looking at the forest for the trees. Each home, each listing presentation, represents X dollars in their minds, and pockets. For me, helping to preserve Triangle pricing and homeowner equity and therefore mitigating the freefall of prices (or at least contributing even one degree toward preventing that freefall) is for me SO much more important - it's leaps and bounds ahead of making that one commission because client loyalty and a future housing recovery will be their own reward, both personally and financially for me.

So, call me crazy, or call me a Contrarian! More next week!

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