Tuesday, December 21, 2010

To List Your Home Not or Not to List Your Home, That Is The Question

Housing starts rose 3.9% in November but don't put yours on the market JUST YET. Between Christmas and New Year's, I am going to take a physical look around at our local real estate market here especially new subdivisions planned in the Triangle to see at what price points we are building, but we are certainly crossing our fingers. If the builders again have the money and confidence to resume building in the Triangle, especially if it is not entirely focused in Morrisville and NW Cary, and if there are a good number of homes over $500,000 again, then we are truly poised for a recovery in the Raleigh Cary area real estate market. That means that 2011 could be the year to put your home up for sale, try to capture the gain on it, and trade up, taking advantage of fire sale prices on existing inventory before it acquires any real pricing power (which could take another year), but don't expect a gangbuster sales price on the sale of your home, just yet.

I don't think we will recover to 2006-7 pricing.  Don't count on buyers offering anything close to your list price on your home simply to move the deal forward quickly in an effort to  catch lower mortgage rates - I'm sure that's what your Realtor told you! Ultimately, buyers look at their financial situation and try to get the lowest principal on a house they can. When credit loosens up, there will again be the mindset of putting down the least they can and yet still work toward getting the lowest possible monthly payment. Think about this - did buyers care about having to pay another point as long as it meant they only had to put 10% down in the past? And did they care about yet another point when they were able to secure low doc loans or have the underwriter look past some weakness? Did they care about going for a 30 year or 40 year loan if it meant a lower monthly payment? They did not. This is human nature. We are more "monthly payment" driven than we are "interest rate" driven. There will always be, in the back of our minds, that possibility of coming into some money and paying the house off! If the higher interest rate means actually GETTING into the house, buyers are grateful.  In the new climate, loans are and will be tougher to get anyway. Very few people at all are getting the lowest rates.
 
I just had a client get turned down for a refi with a score of 730.  He is going to stop the process because he thinks it's absurd that he can pay for the house outright with liquid assets 10 times over this minute, and yet the underwriters bristled at the score - it's a long story, you don't need to hear it, but my client wants to keep his money working in investments. That was another state.  I do have an awesome loan officer and team here in town who will give your profile a thorough look and will not waste your time, and refi's are very hot right now. If you can refi and stick around and NOT trade up just yet, I would lean toward that.  I have a name for you if you write me.

The politics of the buyer climate: I follow politics and economics daily, a holdover from my last career as a portfolio manager. The richest 1% of the nation are simply not spending money right now. Sure, some are dabbling in low priced stock buys, but many are still converting to cash and waiting it out. On Jan 1, we have a whole new Congress, there is a lot of "wait and see" out there. They breathed a sigh of relief over the extended BUSH cuts, but they also know there will have to be some strategies put in place to pay down the deficit, and they know they are targets. Oh, and I am not taking sides here, I am just telling you I know how they think. And it's really not "THEY" and "US."  This mindset filters all the way down the ladder of economic status - for many reasons, it affects the $400,000 market as surely as it affects the $1,000,000 market.
 
So, back to your decision on whether to put your home on the market.  Look at your financial situation, look at how much equity you will really need to get out of the sale of your home in order to make the next move, and let that be the deciding factor. We may see better pricing strength by the latter part of 2011, but don't expect recovery to former prices. After all, out-of-town buyers, no matter where they are from, believe we had a bubble similar to theirs, and their beliefs and their motivation are what guide pricing. And the return of the out-of-town buyer  is exactly what is going to fuel the return of pricing strength in our markets over $400,000. Ultimately, it's about what a buyer is willing to pay and what you are willing to accept in order to move on.
 
Foreclosures still on the rise and high unemployment hovering close to 10% are still  putting pressure on the housing market. The good news about housing starts is just equivalent to a toe in the water! And remember, if you DO need to put your home on the market, please make sure it is competitive!  Do some sprucing, some updating, some staging. Call me, I do free consults on all of it, no strings. I also have a YOUTUBE video on this very subject at  http://www.youtube.com/greenbrokermeg

AddThis

Bookmark and Share